The dilemma of whether or not to withdraw NATO and US missions in Afghanistan has finally been solved: America’s longest war will end in September.

In Afghanistan, however, the scenario in years to come is not optimistic. The level of violence is still high, and the impact of the pandemic has accentuated the structural problems of the still-fragile state, including economic crisis, unemployment, and corruption. The victories obtained in the continuous struggle to strengthen state institutions, support for women’s rights, and humanitarian aid may disappear in a moment.

The presence of ISIS in the region poses a solid threat to international security, especially since in the case of Iraq, following the withdrawal of troops, terrorist cells developed at a rapid pace, and a new intervention was needed.

 This withdrawal could lead to the loss of what has been difficult to achieve so far. It also increases the risk of a civil war and the opening of a new space for maneuver for ISIS. In order to maintain stability in Afghanistan and in the region, as well as to fight the terrorist threat or, at least, to keep it under control, Afghanistan cannot be left alone.

The US and NATO are faced with a new situation, and the correct model to pursue will take shape according to the evolution of the situation on the ground. Certainly, this historic withdrawal changes both the concept of the fight against terrorism and the concept of projecting stability as promoted by NATO.

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