I write this in English for many of my Western friends I met in the US, Austria, or Belgium where I studied and worked between 2007 and 2013 and with whom I’ve had countless conversations about Russia. I was arguing that Russia is a revisionist power with an authoritarian and untruthful leader which was not making a lot of problems back then simply because it lacked the means and standing to project power beyond its borders, but given the opportunity, the Kremlin would not waste it. I always explained that the “fear” countries like Poland and Romania have about Russia is grounded historically. On their side my friends argued that this way of thinking was mostly a historical relic accentuated by the Cold War, but those days are gone. Russia is now a regional and not global power; it needs Europe more than we need them and they will not in the foreseeable future try to alter the security landscape on the Old Continent. That Polish or Romanian fears were ungrounded, and this also led to a poor relationship with Russia which could be improved otherwise.
I am not writing this to say I told you so. I might have been right on this one, I was wrong on many others. No bragging rights here. I am writing because I still believe that even now there is a degree of misunderstanding of Russia’s intentions and unfortunately, we have all grown older and busier and can no longer spend our nights in smoke filled bars to split hairs on this. I believe there is a certain type of complacency towards the big authoritarian regimes of our time which can ultimately kill our democracies and our lives as free people.
If there ever was a chance to bring Russia in some sort of security architecture and cooperation framework with the European Union, it was lost early in the 1990s. I do not think this was ever the case but that is a different story. Russia will not be discussed and negotiated into a regional power or less. That is something they will never accept. I do not believe Russia will change significantly within our lifetimes. It is also clearly forging a relationship with China that will likely strive to bring under its umbrella all the authoritarian regimes of this world. Russia will be uncomfortable as the junior partner in this endeavor, but the other options are democratization and liberalism or unfathomable neutrality. Not going to happen.
Moscow and Beijing are driven mostly by power and geopolitics for a very simple reason. If citizens do not have rights and a say in public affairs and the country is controlled by a small oligarchy that will be always the case. Oligarchies, strongmen, and authoritarian leaders are driven by completely different impulses than the elected officials of democracies, be they faulty ones.
We must be realistic and prepare for a new world order where liberal democracies of various kinds will stand a chance against this strengthening bloc of authoritarian regimes only if they stick together and show some muscle. I have personally reached the said conclusion that for the time being human rights and liberty are in a dangerous retreat and they must be defended where we still have them.
For me this ultimately boils down to several important ideas that I have fiercely debated with many Western friends. The first is the said (temporary) end of what we called the post-Kantian world Europe wanted to build. Perpetual peace between trade loving liberal democracies is still an ideal, but not a very realistic one in today’s world. Secondly, Europe needs a stronger military. Not because we want to go to war, but because we want to avoid one. Remember the words of Theodore Roosevelt: speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far. Finally, we must forge a close-knit and free trading community not only with the United States but with all other countries around the world that share our values like Canada, Australia, South Korea, Japan and so on.
I believe that the fate of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness in the short and medium-term rests solely on how democracies and the citizens of democracies react to this changing world order.