Matei Bogdan
Publicat în 1 iulie 2020, 13:12 / 289 elite & idei

Alexandru Ion Giboi: O proiecție a Universității din Washington, de urmărit

Alexandru Ion Giboi: O proiecție a Universității din Washington, de urmărit

O proiecție a Universității din Washington, de urmărit, pentru că până acum nu au dat greș. E mult mai pesimistă decât politicienii noștri, care ar trebui să înceteze a se manifesta exclusiv electoral. Situația în România are toate șansele să se agraveze rapid.

“IHME’s COVID-19 projections were developed in response to requests from the University of Washington School of Medicine and other US hospital systems and state governments working to determine when COVID-19 would overwhelm their ability to care for patients. The forecasts show demand for hospital services, daily and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19, rates of infection and testing, and the impact of social distancing, organized by country and state (for select locations).”

“To construct our “Current projection” (the line that shows what we think will most likely happen), we assume that in each location the trend of easing mandates will continue at its current trajectory until the daily death rate reaches a threshold of 8 deaths per million. If the daily death rate in a location exceeds that threshold, we are assuming that mandates will be reintroduced for a six-week period. The choice of threshold (of a rate of daily deaths of 8 per million) represents the 90th percentile of the distribution of daily death rate at which locations implemented their mandates during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic. In other words, we use the observed experience from the first phase of the pandemic to predict the likely response of governments during the second phase. We selected the 90th percentile rather than the 50th percentile to capture the increased reluctance most governments will have to re-impose mandates because of the economic effects of the first set of mandates. In locations that do not exceed the threshold of a daily death rate of 8 per million, the projection is based on our covariates and their forecasts to October 1. In locations were the daily death rate currently exceeds 8 per million, we are assuming that mandates will be introduced in a week’s time.”

Mai multe detalii despre model, aici:

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

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