The current global system is disrupted by 2 major exporters : Germany and China. Both adopted a model of internal demand suppression and excessive focus on net exports.

We can see it in their core decisions:
– Germany : job stability but low salaries / salary growth (embedded in their stakeholder system) + zero public debt and curbs on internal lending (to suppress consumption). This benefits the industrial owners that keep the labor cost low
– China : internal surplus invested in infrastructure (not consumption); very limited social nets and state pensions (forcing people to save excessively); massive direct and indirect state subsidies for exporting companies. They prioritize job creation (easier when salaries are low) and internal obedience and stability

These surpluses are then invested in USD with the US HAVING TO act as a consumer of last resort. The US structurally increases its debt levels and becomes uncompetitive on manufacturing (as the USD is kept strong). The extra liquidity pushes the global debt to unsustainable levels. It’s a good system for everyone (except for western industrial jobs) as long as it lasts. However the seeds of collapse are planted – trees cannot grow to the sky.

The only solution to avoid a full breakdown (oversupply, global depression, global war) is for China and Germany to significantly increase their internal consumption (via central budget deficits and flexibility on consumer lending). There is no other solution out of this.