Summary of ideas expressed on the 29th of May 2015 for the “ISLAMIC STATE 2020” Informal Roundtable Meeting held at the Danube House, Bucharest, under the Chatham House Rules, organized by EURISC Foundation, German Marshall Fund – Black Sea Trust and MEPEI Association

The participants advanced proposals to the meeting for setting up a network study group of extremism and terrorism. Such a network would exclude political involvement and focus on the objective research and analysis. The organizers reaffirmed that, given the considerable interest displayed by participants, they are considering options for turning the International Conference into a recurring event on a yearly basis, including the closed door roundtable discussions.

The Islamic State:

There are fundamentally three scenarios for the future of the Islamic State, which will be referred to as Daesh in accordance with the recommendation by the leader of the Global Coalition against it, Gen. John Allen, to avoid the legitimizing connotations of the term State:

1. It may disappear one year from now or in another reasonable timeframe if there is political will and close cooperation of US and EU with regional players;

2. Because of the interests behind Daesh, it will take much more to defeat Daesh taking also into account the fundamental weakness of the coalition against it, beset by conflicting interests among Great Powers and regional powers;

3. Transformation of Daesh into something else (“thinking the unthinkable”), similar to its initiation from a regional Al-Qaeda subsidiary. This can also include a total paradigm shift, much greater than the Daesh emphasis on taking and holding territory and advancing state ambitions/

DOWNLOAD AND READ the SUMMARY – Islamic State 2020 Roundtable Ideas 29 May 2015

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